Geopolitical tension, economic fragmentation, and shifting power centres are reshaping global growth and placing Africa at the heart of the next economic era in a rebalancing of global power.
Renowned global economist Prof. Jeffrey Sachs, director of the Center for Sustainability at New York’s Columbia University, describes the present as a hinge moment in world history, a shift that is widely felt. Speaking at a recent GIBS Forum, Sachs said that current US politics, exemplified by President Donald Trump, highlight how unsettled the global order has become. The US is drifting from rational leadership and losing the dominance it held for 75 years, while China has grown into a larger, more dynamic, and technologically advanced economy despite its far lower GDP per capita.
“This is the backdrop to current geopolitics. In my view, US-China tensions are not a clash of equals but the result of US discomfort with China’s success.”
Prof. Sachs pointed to a 2015 Council on Foreign Relations article by Robert Blackwill and Ashley Tellis, which openly asserts that US grand strategy is built on maintaining pre-eminence and that China’s rise threatens that position. The sentiment reflects a belief that another nation’s progress is inherently negative.
Such thinking contradicts Adam Smith, whose Wealth of Nations turns 250 next year. Smith argued that prosperity is not zero-sum, that global trade benefits all and that over time international power imbalances would rebalance. Sachs said this rebalancing is now under way.
Asia’s rise illustrates the shift. Japan industrialised early, inspiring the Asian Tigers and later China, which demonstrated the feasibility of rapid development through long-term planning, investment in people, and state-guided markets. India followed with reforms, Central Asia is re-emerging as a key transit region, and Gulf states are leveraging financial strength to transition from hydrocarbons.
“Globalisation has not ended, rather, US and European dominance have faded. Asia and Africa, home to nearly 80% of the world’s population, are deepening their economic ties. The fragmentation visible today is, in large part, a Western psychological adjustment.”
This brings the focus to Africa, which has yet to experience Asia-style sustained growth. Sachs believes the continent can achieve it over the next 40 years, with universities such as GIBS playing a pivotal role in knowledge creation and human capital development.
