After eliminating more than 1 000 jobs at a federal agency in March 2025, the US Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) provided the remaining 1 500 employees with three chatbots to support them to maintain productivity by drafting e-mails, taking notes at meetings and (for the remaining software coders), writing code[i]. Two years ago, this would have been unthinkable from both political and technological vantage points. As is the case in many parts of the world, the jobs of US government employees have typically been well protected. The notion that they could be fired, and that their output would be replaced by bots, was a “double whammy”.
Perhaps events like these are just storms in a teacup. Financial Times journalist Janan Ganesh recently argued that even though it felt like Covid was a seismic event that changed the world, it didn’t really[ii]. Despite making a case for the transience of events that can feel earth-shaking at the time, he acknowledges that he has seen three turning points in his lifetime – the fall of the Soviet Union, the election of Donald Trump, and the war in Ukraine.
In a world of rapidly shifting geopolitics and revolutions in technology, not to mention ongoing disruptions brought about by climate change, it’s hard to know which external events herald such inflection points in global, regional, or national environments. For busy executives and board members, sifting through ever-expanding information sources to distinguish between fads, fashions, and trends in their macro-environment is only the beginning of the journey. Figuring out when, how, and how quickly to rechart the course to take is where the art and science of creating new futures really comes to the fore.
Charting a new course
Last year I was asked to design a learning journey to support business executives to acquire the competencies needed to anticipate the trajectory of significant shifts, and the impact of these, and to craft and co-create possible and preferable business responses. The idea here was not to make them deep experts in a particular trend, but rather to equip them to deal with the multiple shifts that businesses will need to face in a changing world. After extensive reading, interviews with scholars and business executives, conversations with colleagues both at and beyond GIBS, and some mulling on my daily nature walks in Atlanta, Georgia, a four-part learning-journey map was born.
The first stage of the journey focuses on looking out for and listening into signals and signs beyond typical business horizons that suggest that there are profound changes afoot. One of the challenges in this phase of sensing is to filter out the noise of the many movements in societies, economies, and geographies to home into what scholar Sandra Waddock refers to as “large-scale transformation changes”[iii].
These are typically complex disruptive movements from which there is no turning back. Think historically of how the Second World War accelerated opportunities for women to enter workplaces that had previously been dominated by men, the break-up of the USSR, and the development and roll-out of the internet.
While there may be efforts to regress to “what was before”, they have transformed the way that a significant number of people work, play, and live. It’s relatively easy to look back with hindsight and identify them as key shifts, but what’s so much harder is to make a call when such transformational changes are emergent.
When we look back, will Donald Trump have inexorably shifted the geopolitical landscape away from its previous course? Will cryptocurrency mark a significant change for societies around the world?[iv] What ecological tipping points have been crossed in the trajectory of climate change, and what does this mean for our industry and organisation?
Not all changes arrive with equal timing and gusto at the many doors of business. It depends on an organisation’s industry, geography, and role in the value chain, as well as their own disposition to embrace change. Consider corporate responses to generative artificial intelligence. For some firms, genAI currently represents a nascent tool to engage in early experimentation while, for others, it’s already led to a major rewiring of their business[v].
While a scientific, evidence-led approach is needed to identify potential large-scale transformation changes, the selection and timing of which and when to focus involves artistry as well.
Once possible transformative changes have been identified the next phase is a deep dive into understanding the origins, drivers, and potential trajectories of the change. The very nature of these disruptions means that more is needed than simple prediction tools to “see around corners”. An understanding of the systems that have given rise to the shift in question needs to be built, coupled with theories and tools used in strategic foresight and futures thinking, in which possible, probable, and plausible futures need to be envisaged in this phase of anticipation.
It's one thing to anticipate multiple futures, but quite another to identify what companies need to do to not only mitigate risks, but to actively position their organisations to co-create and benefit responsibly from transformational changes.
There is a key insight that shouldn’t be missed here – transformational changes ripple (and sometimes blast!) through the ecosystems in which they operate. Firms typically do not benefit from reacting, acting, creating, and ultimately evolving in isolation. They reap rewards from early engagement with key stakeholders such as customers, suppliers, regulators, and partners to work together to anticipate and prepare for changes that lie ahead.
Unlike the power that directors may be able to wield in their own firms, collaborating with stakeholders who may have very different interests and perspectives takes skills and a mindset of this stage of stakeholder co-creation to find common ground on the implications of the change, let alone how to address it. When in this phase, it’s worth remembering the African adage that if you want to go fast, go alone; if you want to go far, go together.
Beyond sensing, anticipating, and co-creating with stakeholders, the final piece of the puzzle lies in building adapting at the organisational level . Charting a new strategy is likely to be one part of a required response, but ultimately organisations that are able to weather the tides of change have also focused on embedding resilient mindsets and practices through leaders with an optimistic yet pragmatic viewpoint, as well as an ability to nimbly translate strategy into new business models and business routines.
Although the actions of sensing, anticipating, co-creating with stakeholders, and organisational adaptation appear to be distinct and sequential, organisations need to focus on these simultaneously and iteratively.
While the responsibilities for identifying ways to harness new opportunities may lie with specific departments in a firm, they cannot be held accountable for building organisational resilience and capacity to weather large-scale transformational shifts. That lies with directors who are tasked with fiduciary responsibilities to navigate their firms into uncertain futures.
Where to now?
In July 2025, the first cohort of the new GIBS MPhil with a specialisation in Leading New Economies will begin their studies. The four core modules in this blended (partly on-line and partly face-to-face) qualification have been built around the four key themes discussed above. The term “new economies” references the many significant macro-environmental changes (like the digital economy, the circular economy, the gig economy) that give rise to changing patterns of demand and supply, which will present as opportunities for some firms and threats for others, depending on their ability to chart a course in a world of changing tides.
Learn more about the MPhil specialising in Leading Economies at https://www.gibs.co.za/programmes/mphil-in-business-management-specialising-in-leading-new-economies.
[i] Crumley, R. (2025) DOGE’s ai app replacing fired federal workers proves about as good as an intern, 10 March available at https://www.inc.com/bruce-crumley/doges-ai-app-replacing-fired-federal-workers-proves-about-as-good-as-an-intern/91158894
[ii] Ganesh,J. 2025. The pandemic that didn’t change the world. Financial Times, 7 March available at https://www.ft.com/content/c0734fa8-9b29-4f8e-848d-589dc92edbb8
[iii] Waddock, S. (2020) Thinking Transformational System Change, Journal of Change Management, 20:3, 189-201, DOI: 10.1080/14697017.2020.1737179
[iv] Yermack, D. 2025. Exploring the potential of cryptocurrencies for positive change. Available at https://www.un.org/en/desa/exploring-potential-cryptocurrencies-positive-change#:~:text=Bitcoin%20allows%20people%20to%20send,to%20societies%20around%20the%20world.
[v] Deloitte (2025).The state of generative AI. Available at https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/consulting/articles/state-of-generative-ai-in-enterprise.html
Nicola Kleyn is an extraordinary professor and a former full professor and dean of GIBS. After working for GIBS for 20 years, in 2020 she assumed the role of Dean of Post Experience Education at the Rotterdam School of Management in the Netherlands for four years. Nicola is currently an active researcher, teacher, consultant, and facilitator focusing on both business schools and businesses across multiple continents. Although she now lives in Atlanta in the USA, she visits South Africa frequently to spend time enjoying her family and friends, great food and some of the best weather in the world.
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